Fábio Couto and Kariny Leal — Rio de Janeiro – 04/14/2025 11:45 AM
Brazil’s oil giant invests in reviving Campos Basin, plans similar strategy for Santos, home to pre-salt megafields
Petrobras, responsible on its own or in joint ventures for nearly 90% of Brazil’s oil and gas output, is navigating volatile commodity prices while pursuing strategies to sustain production over the long term. The company closely monitors the global market turmoil triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war, which has recently intensified oil price fluctuations. On Friday (11), Brent crude closed at $64 per barrel, up 1.96% from the day before but still down 13.66% since April 2—the so-called “Liberation Day.”
Since the tariffs were imposed, Petrobras has lost R$63.2 billion in market capitalization, making it the hardest-hit Brazilian company. Despite the volatility, the company has held off on reducing diesel and gasoline prices, even as Brent declines. “Crises are not the exception—they are the rule. We just experience a few moments of calm between them,” said Sylvia Anjos, Petrobras’s chief upstream officer, at a recent event.
Last week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2025 oil forecast to $66 per barrel, down $5 from its previous estimate. According to Ms. Anjos, Petrobras remains competitive under such conditions: “Our projects remain resilient even at prices as low as $28 per barrel.”
While short-term efforts are focused on navigating price swings, the medium- and long-term agenda revolves around ensuring production levels that maintain Brazil’s position as a major oil exporter and minimize import reliance.
To this end, Petrobras is prioritizing reserve replacement through two main avenues: exploring new frontiers—particularly the Equatorial Margin’s Foz do Amazonas, pending environmental licensing from IBAMA—and enhancing output at existing fields, especially in the Campos and Santos basins, Brazil’s most productive offshore areas.
Campos Basin, the cradle of Brazil’s offshore oil industry since 1974, is revitalizing to restore daily output to 1 million barrels within a decade—a 32% increase from the 2024 average of 681,000 barrels, accounting for 20.3% of national production.
In 2010, the basin averaged 1.75 million barrels per day, or 85.5% of Brazil’s total oil output at the time.
The younger Santos Basin, home to Brazil’s giant pre-salt reserves, began production in 2009 and is nearing its output peak. In 2024, it produced 2.6 million barrels per day—77% of the national total. Key fields include Tupi and Búzios.
Tupi, operated by Petrobras in partnership with Shell and Petrogal, produced about 780,000 barrels per day last year. Búzios, a venture with China’s CNOOC, CNODC, and Brazil’s PPSA, averaged 639,000 barrels per day.
The discovery of pre-salt reserves in 2006 prompted Petrobras to redirect financial, technological, and human resources toward these new areas, sidelining Campos. As output in the mature basin declined, Petrobras reassessed the economics and opted to invest in raising production there once more.
“Production in Campos declined faster than it should have because past efforts to sustain volumes were lacking. What we’re doing now is postponing the end of production there,” Ms. Anjos said.
She noted that Campos peaked in 2009, creating a “false sense that no further action was needed.” Petrobras is now applying lessons from Campos to Tupi, seeking to delay its decline.
The Campos Basin development itself was a response to past global oil shocks in 1973 and 1979. At the time, Brazil relied heavily on imports, and soaring global prices forced it to seek domestic alternatives. In 1974, Petrobras struck commercially viable oil in the Garoupa field, followed by Namorado and Enchova. Brazil’s daily oil production then stood at 164,300 barrels; in 2024, the country produced 4.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
To replenish reserves and boost productivity, Petrobras and its partners are employing a range of solutions. Technological advances—including platform upgrades, water and gas injection, and “smart completion” methods that allow real-time production optimization—are key.
The company is also deploying 4D seismic imaging to map reservoir structures more precisely. With these tools and new production systems, Petrobras plans to drill 200 new wells in Campos by 2029.
The revitalization effort—based on the principle that “every drop counts”—gained traction in 2023 with the launch of FPSOs Anita Garibaldi and Anna Nery in the Marlim field, replacing nine older platforms. Petrobras is now tendering three additional FPSOs for the Albacora, Barracuda-Caratinga, and Marlim Sul–Marlim Leste fields.
These initiatives fall under the 2025–2029 Business Plan, which earmarks $77 billion—or 70% of the company’s total $111 billion investment—for exploration and production. The allocation underscores the centrality of upstream operations in Petrobras’s business model.
Claudio Nunes, head of exploration and production at the Brazilian Petroleum and Gas Institute (IBP), noted that revitalizing mature fields complements new exploration. “A field starts declining from the first drop of oil, so reserves must be replaced continuously,” he said.
Giovanni Loss, a partner at law firm Mattos Filho, linked Petrobras’s strategy to ongoing delays in licensing exploration in Foz do Amazonas. “Revitalizing Campos makes sense when there’s no clear path to adding new reserves. It’s not about creating more reserves but improving productivity,” he said. “With limited capital, Petrobras must invest where returns are greatest.”
Rivaldo Moreira Neto, a partner at infrastructure consultancy A&M Infra, argued that Campos still holds untapped potential and was deprioritized after 2006 in favor of pre-salt discoveries, which offered faster returns. “The pre-salt has a profile of ‘drill, find, produce,’ making it easier for Petrobras to focus on Santos.”
A source familiar with the early stages of the Campos revitalization effort said the goals are realistic, though supply chain issues could pose challenges. “Production costs are crucial. Some past projects were delayed due to a lack of competitively priced suppliers. It all depends on the moment, including shipyard capacity, both domestic and international.”
According to the source, Petrobras’s focus on new frontiers such as Foz do Amazonas and the Pelotas Basin does not compete with revitalization efforts; the projects are complementary. The company is already reviewing a similar plan for the Santos Basin, particularly for Tupi.
For Tupi, plans include a new platform, additional wells, extended FPSO lifespans, and a robust seismic campaign to optimize reservoir management. However, the viability of these investments hinges on regulatory approval from the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) for an extension of Petrobras’s production rights at the field.
“This is a field that clearly merits Petrobras’s full attention,” Mr. Loss said. “Selling it now makes no sense. Productivity means revenue—and Tupi’s productivity must be preserved.”
Source: Valor International / Br8
